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Housing Market Optimism Rises In August

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index is a monthly measure of how Americans view the housing market and their personal financial situation. The survey asks respondents for their feelings about whether it’s a good time to buy or sell a home, home prices, mortgage rates, job security, income, etc. In August, the index found Americans’ optimism rebounded after a drop in July. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, said the recovery was driven, in part, by record low mortgage rates. “The HPSI rose modestly in August, recovering the ground it lost in July,” Duncan said. “The HPSI’s recovery was driven by near-record low mortgage rates that helped restore much of consumers’ positivity on whether it is a good time to buy a home, while also improving the good-time-to-sell sentiment.” According to the survey, the number of participant who said they felt now was a good time to buy a home rose from 53 percent to 59 percent in August, while the net share of those who said it’s a good time to sell increased 7 percent. The number of respondents who said their income was significantly higher than one year ago also rose, climbing 3 percent month-over-month. (source)

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Low Mortgage Rates Help Buyers Afford More

If you know nothing else about how financing works, you know a lower mortgage rate is better than a higher one. You don’t need to be an expert to have figured that out. But calculating exactly how a good rate affects how much house you can afford is a little more complicated. After all, there a lot of moving parts. One recent analysis might help. The report looked at how much purchasing power home buyers have gained over the past year – since mortgage rates have dropped by almost a full point during that time. The results help explain why buyer demand is so high right now. They also help illustrate just how much more house you can afford with rates near record lows. So how much is it? Well, according to the numbers, a home buyer with a monthly budget of $2,500 can afford a home $33,250 more expensive than what they could buy last year at the same time. That’s a nearly 7 percent increase year-over-year. Put another way, that buyer, in August 2019, could afford a $483,250 house. Now, they could comfortably buy a $516,500 house. That’s a significant upgrade and good news for hopeful home buyers looking to make a move as the summer winds down. (source)

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Fewer Homes For Sale Keeps Sellers In Control

Ideally, the number of homes for sale would be equal to the number of interested home buyers. After all, an equally balanced housing market would mean no competition, no bidding wars, and no threat of spiking home prices. Unfortunately, though, that’s not how it works. And so, there are times when there are few buyers and more than enough homes and other times when there aren’t enough homes to satisfy buyer demand. In today’s market, inventory is low. The number of available homes for sale was already lower than normal to start the year and the pandemic only made things worse. How much worse? Well, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, inventory was down 36 percent in August year-over-year. And while there are some areas – like Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Orlando – where active listings are down as little as 11 percent, there are others that have seen inventory drop as much as 55.9 percent. In short, it’s a seller’s market and will likely continue to be for the foreseeable future. That means, hopeful home buyers need to be prepared to act fast when they find a home that fits their needs. (source)

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Purchase Loan Demand Up 28% Over Last Year

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, demand for loans to buy homes is now 28 percent higher than it was last year at the same time. The improvement is notable, especially since it comes during a week when purchase demand was virtually flat from the week before. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said it was the 15th straight week of year-over-year gains. “Purchase applications were essentially unchanged over the week and were 28 percent higher than a year ago – the 15th straight week of year-over-year increases,” Kan said. “Lenders are reporting that the strong demand for home buying is coming from delayed activity from the spring, as well as households seeking more space in less densely populated areas.” Also in the report, average mortgage rates were relatively unchanged from one week earlier, with rates still hovering just above historic lows. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

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Will The Economic Rebound Continue This Fall?

During the second quarter, the economy suffered the worst contraction since World War II. But the strength of the subsequent rebound has Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group expecting further improvement. In fact, according to their latest forecast, the group believes that – barring a worsening of the coronavirus outbreak – the recovery will continue into the third quarter. And Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says the housing market will lead the way. “We believe housing will continue to be a sector with relative strength amid the larger downturn, as long-running supply constraints exacerbate demographic and interest rate demand-side factors that are supporting home price growth,” Duncan said. “The recently observed increase in purchase demand is largely due to pent-up demand as buyers are acting now after delaying purchases in the spring.” Additionally the ESR Group says that any regional coronavirus flare-ups are unlikely to lead to a further economic contraction and, instead, will result only in a temporary pause in the growth rate. Because of this, they’ve revised upward their forecast for home sales and mortgage originations this year. (source)

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No End In Sight For Surging Buyer Demand

New numbers from the National Association of Realtors show contract signings up for the third straight month. Contract activity rose 5.9 percent in July and is now 15.5 percent higher than the same time last year. The new data is more evidence that the housing market has experienced a V-shaped recovery, with summer sales numbers proving buyers have returned in big numbers following the coronavirus lockdowns that kept them at bay this spring. And, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, home sales would be even higher, if there were more homes available for sale. “Anecdotally, Realtors are telling me there is no shortage of clients or home seekers, but that scarce inventory remains a problem,” Yun said. “If 20 percent more homes were on the market, we would have 20 percent more sales, because demand is that high.” Yun believes there’s little indication that the rebound is going to come to an end any time soon. In fact, the NAR economist says he now expects home sales in 2020 to beat last year’s numbers, rising 1.1 percent from 2019. (source)

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New Home Sales Soar, Hit 14-Year High

In July, sales of newly built, single-family homes soared to their highest level since 2006, according to new estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales increased 13.9 percent from the month before and are now 36.3 percent higher than at the same time last year. The improvement is yet another sign that buyer demand has rebounded after initially tumbling following the coronavirus’ onset this spring. Skyrocketing new-home sales – combined with the similarly strong July existing-home sales report – make it clear that Americans have returned to the market and are eager to buy, while they can still take advantage of record-low mortgage rates. But though the long streak of low mortgage rates has helped keep affordability levels in check, buyers still face rising prices. In fact, the median sales price of new homes sold in July was $330,600, which is 7.2 percent higher than it was one year ago. The average sales price was $391,300. (source)

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Recent Home Buyers Buy Bigger

The coronavirus pandemic has caused Americans to spend more time in their homes than they did in the past. Remote work and stay-at-home orders have kept people at home and it’s changed how they feel about their living space. Mostly, it’s caused them to dream of a bigger house. The proof is in the numbers. For example, according to one recent analysis, the typical home sold over the past 30 days has been 3.7 percent bigger than the typical home sold during the same period one year ago. And while 3.7 percent may not seem like that much, the average year-over-year growth rate between 2015 and 2019 was just 0.4 percent. Additionally, sales of larger homes were up 21 percent year-over-year in July, nearly 10 times the growth rate for smaller homes. In short, home buyers are focused on finding more space and it’s starting to show up in the data. But while sales of bigger houses have spiked, their prices haven’t. Small and medium-sized homes are still seeing faster price increases compared to larger homes. (source)

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Mortgage Rates Unchanged, Still Near Record Lows

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates were mostly flat last week, remaining near all-time survey lows. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans and 15-year fixed-rate loans fell from the week before, while jumbo loans and loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration were unchanged from the previous week. Despite low rates, however, refinance demand decreased from one week earlier. Purchase application demand, on the other hand, was virtually unchanged from the previous week and is now 33 percent higher than at the same time last year. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says the purchase market has been a bright spot. “The home purchase market remains a bright spot for the overall economy,” Kan said. “Purchase applications were essentially unchanged but were 33 percent higher than a year ago – the 14th straight week of year-over-year gains. Mortgage rates at record lows and households looking for more space are driving this summer’s surge in demand.” The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

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Price Index Finds Home Values Up 4.3%

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have been tracking home prices for more than 30 years and are considered among the leading measures of U.S. home values. According to the latest release – which contains data through the end of June – home prices are up 4.3 percent over last year at the same time. But while prices continue to increase, they are doing so at a slower pace. In fact, June’s increase was flat from the month before and both the 10- and 20-City Composites saw declines. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says prices are stable, but the long-term trend remains to be seen. “Housing prices were stable in June,” Lazzara said. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.3 percent in June 2020, as it had also done in May … More data will be required to understand whether the market resumes its previous path of accelerating prices, continues to decelerate, or remains stable. That said, it’s important to bear in mind that deceleration is quite different from an environment in which prices actually fall.” According to the data, Phoenix, Seattle, and Tampa saw the biggest price gains year-over-year. (source)